Who’s winning the election in Pennsylvania, swing states? Check the polls
Election Day countdown is just 18 days away and all eyes are on swing states like Pennsylvania
While most states consistently vote red or blue, such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, some are up for grabs each election. These are called swing states or the battleground states.
The Republican and Democratic parties are both focusing a lot of time and resources on the states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — where the race is so close that they can really go either way.
Pennsylvania is considered essential to winning the White House, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hoping to sweep up the state’s 19 Electoral College votes on Election Night.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines across the country and is likely to impact undecided voters or have others reconsidering their votes:
Here is an update on each swing states' polls and odds compared to the national polls and odds — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the swing states' polls and favored by the odds?
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +2.0%, Harris 48.3% to Trump's 46.3%; Pennsylvania has Harris leading by +0.1%; Arizona has Trump leading by +2.0%; Georgia has Trump leading by +2.2%; Michigan has Harris leading by +0.4%; Nevada has Harris leading by +0.4%; North Carolina has Trump leading by +0.9%; and Wisconsin has Trump leading by +0.1.
270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.1% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Harris leads Trump by only 0.3%; Arizona has Trump leading by 1.7%; Georgia has Trump leading by 1.8%; Michigan has them in a tie; Nevada has them in a tie; North Carolina has Trump leading by 0.5%, and Wisconsin has Trump leading by 0.7%.
realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris' favor with a spread of +1.6 over Trump, while Pennsylvania shows odds favoring Trump by +0.5; Arizona shows odds +1.4 in favor of Trump; Georgia shows +1.1 in favor of Trump; Michigan shows +0.9 in favor of Trump; Nevada shows +0.5 in favor of Trump; North Carolina shows +1.0 in favor of Trump and Wisconsin shows +0.1 in favor of Trump.
Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing high odds by the betting public in the national race favoring Trump 60.1% over Harris 39.8%. Pennsylvania shows Trump favored 57% over Harris's 43%. Arizona shows Trump favored 70% over Harris 31%. Georgia shows Trump favored 65% over Harris 35%. Michigan shows Trump favored 56% over Harris 45%. Nevada shows Trump favored 51% over Harris 50%. North Carolina shows Trump favored 65% over Harris 36%. Wisconsin shows Trump favored 57% over Harris 44%.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, at 2 p.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who's winning? What polls say in Pennsylvania, swing states