Women outpacing men in early voting, boosting Harris campaign's optimism

WASHINGTON ― Women have outpaced men in early-voting turnout by nearly 10 percentage points ? a trend the Kamala Harris campaign and Democrats see as reason for optimism.

But Republican nominee Donald Trump's campaign insists it isn't concerned, arguing the gap is simply the result of male Democratic voters so far staying home.

Four days from Election Day, 53% of early voters nationally as of Friday have been women and 44% men, according to TargetSmart, a Democratic-aligned firm that tracks early voting data.

The margin is about the same as the 2020 election won by Joe Biden, when the gap at this same point in early voting also rounded to 53%-44%. But Democrats are bullish because women ? who polls show back Harris over Donald Trump by a sizable margin ? have maintained the 9-point edge even though Republican voters have formed a larger share of the preliminary vote this year.

"The Democratic women, especially, appear to be just more fired up. Even though the Republicans' vote share is increasing, you're still seeing those gender gaps hold," said Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart.

More: Harris narrowly leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan Wisconsin, Marist polls find

More than 67 million Americans have voted early as of Friday afternoon, according to the University of Florida's Election Project, which tracks voting figures. TargetSmart's gender breakdown, which is based on publicly available data, is taken from the initial 55 million early votes. More than 100 million Americans voted early in 2020.

Who voters cast ballots for is not public information. But in a race with a historic gender gap, Harris is performing significantly better among women and Trump with men polling has shown. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 14 to 18 found Harris leading nationally 53%-36% with female voters and Trump leading 53%-37% with male voters

More: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump with 4 days to go

The seven top battleground states have seen the following gender gaps in early voting, according to TargetSmart's data:

• Pennsylvania ? women have a 14-percentage point turnout edge over men

• Michigan ? women have a 10-point edge

• Wisconsin ? women have an 8-point edge

• North Carolina ? women have an 11-point edge

• Georgia ? women have a 12-point edge

• Nevada ?women and male turnout is roughly the same (women turnout was 2 percentage points greater than men in 2020)

• Arizona ?women have a 5-point advantage

The gender gap is expected to narrow as more men than women vote on Election Day. In 2020, women accounted for about 52% of the final vote.

Democrats have seen growing support from women in elections held since the 2022 Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade and a constitutional right to an abortion. Harris has campaigned aggressively on restoring abortion rights while blaming Trump for the overturning of Roe through his three Supreme Court appointments.

Harris on Thursday called it "offensive to everybody" after Trump recently said he would protect women whether they "like it or not."

"The women of America are definitely voting," a senior Harris campaign official said in a call with reporters. "And we know that the vice president is performing better with women than Trump."

Some Republicans have raised alarm at the early-voting gender distribution "Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple," conservative activist Charlie Kirk, co-founder of Turning Point USA, said in a post on X. "Men need to GO VOTE NOW."

The Trump campaign, however, isn't sounding worried. A Trump campaign official pointed to data that suggests fewer Democratic male voters are turning out to vote early, helping explain the wide gender gap: Thirty-nine percent of Pennsylvania's registered Democratic early voters have been men; 37% of North Carolina's Democratic voters have been men; and in Nevada, 43% of Democratic voters have been been.

“To all their bragging about more women in the electorate, it appears that Democrat men aren't showing up ? at least yet," the Trump official said. "They might, but not yet."

More: Gender war: Historic gap between men and women defines Harris v. Trump

Democrats emphasize the 2020 gender gap has held in 2024 even as Republican voters ? disproportionately male ? have cut into Democrats' early-voting advantage. In states with party registration, Democratic voters have accounted for 47% of the early vote, compared to 44% for Republican voters. The 3-point gap is narrower than Democrats 49%-41% advantage in the early vote share this in 2020.

Harris allies are convinced the Republican gains are the result of Republicans who voted Election Day in 2020 voting early this year at the urging of Trump, who has embraced early and mail voting this year after demonizing it during his last run. They also argue more Democrats, who were more likely than Republicans to be "COVID-conscious" in 2020 and vote by mail during the pandemic, have shifted back to their typical voting modes.

"What we've seen since the Dobbs decision ? where women have just been politically engaged at a higher rate than they were prior ? we're seeing continue in the early vote," Bonier said. "To see these large gender gaps holding in the early vote relative to 2020 is a certainly source for optimism for the (Harris) campaign."

More: The bro vote: Trump and Harris duel over what it means to be a man in America

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign Friday touted momentum among previously undecided voters who made up their minds on a candidate in the last week. A senior Harris campaign official cited internal data suggesting Harris is winning these voters over Trump by "double digits." The official pointed to Trump's recent campaign rally at New York's Madison Square Garden, which included racist comments from some speakers, as a galvanizing moment that "crystalized the choice" for many voters.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign's national press secretary, disputed the trend, accusing the Harris campaign of "trying to change the narrative about their sinking ship."

"What part of the last week would encourage people to get out and vote for Kamala Harris?" Leavitt said, singling out President Joe Biden's controversial "garbage" remark about Trump supporters. "Kamala Harris has had bad news cycle after bad news cycle because she's a terrible candidate and no one has been inspired to vote for her."

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Women outpacing men in early voting, boosting optimism for Harris