College Football 25 simulation: Will BYU’s offense run smoothly vs. Wyoming minus its top two backs?
Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU has a chance to finish nonconference play unbeaten when it plays at Wyoming on Friday.
Can the Cougars, minus their top two running backs, earn a road win against their old conference rivals?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of the game on EA Sports College Football 25, and at least according to the video game, it was a good night for the Cougars.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters — I adjusted it down from 12 minutes last week, with the option to adjust that if necessary in future simulations — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, and this week it impacted the running back room for both schools.
Both LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati left BYU’s 18-15 win over SMU last week with injuries, and they won’t be suiting up for the Cougars against the Cowboys, so I moved them off the depth chart.
Wyoming’s Harrison Waylee was also moved down the depth chart — he has yet to play this year after undergoing surgery last month.
I also matched up, to the best of my knowledge, the uniform combos we’ll see in the game.
How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?
The actual score: BYU 18, SMU 15
College Football 25 simulation final score: SMU 38, BYU 33
My analysis: The simulation was wrong on who won, though it’s understandable — the Cougars were double-digit underdogs. They used a strong defensive day, which included forcing a pair of turnovers in the red zone, to beat the Mustangs.
The actual game was much lower-scoring, as both teams struggled with turnovers and moving the ball.
How did the simulation between BYU and Wyoming play out?
Final score: BYU 41, Wyoming 20
Key sequence: The Cougars had a chance to build a three-score lead early in the third quarter when they faced a third-and-18 from the Wyoming 42 — BYU had been set up with a short field after a shanked Cowboys punt.
The Cougars capitalized on the opportunity, as Jake Retzlaff hit a wide open Chase Roberts at the 10, and the wide receiver took it the rest of the way for a 42-yard touchdown pass to put BYU up 28-6.
BYU’s offensive line gave Retzlaff good protection and plenty of time to go through his progressions before he found Roberts open deep downfield.
How the simulation transpired: With Martin and Ropati out, the Cougars leaned heavily on running back Miles Davis, who two years ago (in the real world) ran for 131 yards in BYU’s 38-24 win over Wyoming in Provo.
In the video game version, he was relied on to help the Cougars maintain ball control while picking up critical first downs in third-and-short situations.
That early-game emphasis on the run game helped open up the pass late in the second quarter and early in the third, when BYU put the game away.
Davis scored on a pair of short touchdown runs in the first half, from 11 and 1 yards, while Keanu Hill caught a 1-yard score as the Cougars built a 21-6 halftime lead.
Roberts’ touchdown grab early in the third quarter set the tone for the second half, and BYU led by as much as 38-6 — on a short Keelan Marion touchdown catch and a Will Ferrin 48-yard field goal — before Wyoming scored two late touchdowns, while Ferrin also hit a 52-yarder with just over a minute to play.
Star players: Oddly enough, Davis matched his previous real-world experience against Wyoming by rushing for a game-high 131 yards and two touchdowns.
Retzlaff threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns — he was also intercepted in the red zone in the opening minute of the second quarter. Hill caught eight of those passes for 115 yards and a score.
Isaiah Bagnah led a balanced defensive effort for BYU with three tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack.
Wyoming’s Evan Svoboda threw for 242 yards and two late touchdowns.
Key stats: The Cougars had 448 yards of total offense to 282 for the Cowboys.
BYU held Wyoming to 40 rushing yards and 2.9 yards per carry.
The Cougars also converted 12 of 15 third-down attempts, while the Cowboys were just 3 of 10.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: For the most part, outside of feeling like there’s still too much offensive production — I tweaked the CPU ratings to counter this after last week, and may do a bit more next week — it felt like a plausible result.
I don’t see BYU winning by more than a score, or maybe two, but the Cougars were in control much of the game and, with Wyoming coming 0-2 and reeling a bit, it could play out this way.
