Fantasy Take-Fest, Part IV: Revealing favorite sleepers for saves in baseball leagues!
This is Part 4 of a series in which I use the results of the recent “League of Leagues” three-sport fantasy draft as an excuse to give hot takes on all things (non-sports included at the bottom).
Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5
ROUND 24
323. 7th Supplemental Pick
324. Scott Kingery
325. Lou Williams
326. Jarrett Allen
327. Preston Williams
328. Edwin Encarnacion
329. Justin Upton
330. Brandon Ingram (keeper)
331. Richaun Holmes
332. T.J. Warren (keeper)
333. Joe Jimenez
334. Spencer Dinwiddie
335. Brook Lopez
336. Otto Porter Jr.
Despite D’Angelo Russell leaving and missing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving for a good chunk of the season, Jarrett Allen saw his minutes decrease during Year Three in the league (and down to just 21:36 mpg after the ASB) thanks to KD’s buddy DeAndre Jordan, who owned a -1.8 Net Rating (Allen’s was positive). With Kenny Atkinson essentially saying “Good luck” on his way out, it’s going to be fascinating to watch the mercurial Irving team up with Durant next season.
And by fascinating, I mean a train wreck.
ROUND 25
337. Mitch Garver
338. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
339. German Marquez
340. Robbie Ray
341. Yuli Gurriel
342. Norman Powell
343. Brandon Kintzler
344. Mark Melancon
345. Miles Bridges
346. Jose Urquidy
347. Kevin Newman
348. Kenny Stills
349. Luke Voit
350. Coby White
I like Jose Urquidy a lot more than German Marquez and Robbie Ray, while Mark Melancon is one of my favorite relievers to target this year (a veteran who will get the saves) … Kenny Stills is a good athlete who finished top-10 among wideouts last year in yards per target, fantasy points per target, catch rate and QB Rating when targeted. He’s about to see a lot more volume with DeAndre Hopkins gone, Will Fuller one of the more injury-prone players in the league and in an offense with a possibly washed-up running back. Not too mention, one of the game’s best quarterbacks will be throwing to Stills. He should now be treated as a top-30 fantasy WR with upside for more.
ROUND 26
351. Al Horford
352. Malik Beasley
353. Mike Minor
354. Lance McCullers Jr.
355. Markelle Fultz
356. Mike Clevinger (keeper)
357. Masahiro Tanaka
358. Evan Engram
359. Kenta Maeda
360. Jake Odorizzi
361. Bryan Reynolds
362. Kolten Wong
363. Christian Walker
364. OG Anunoby
Lance McCullers Jr. is a wild card but had some of the filthiest stuff in baseball (his curveball is arguably the best) before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He gets all the benefits that come with pitching for the Astros and no longer has an innings limit worry in 2020. I’ll give it a 45% chance McCullers finishes with the better fantasy season than Justin Verlander.
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I gambled Malik Beasley would last one more round — and lost. The Timberwolves will look different when healthy next season, but Beasley averaged 20.7 points and 3.5 threes after getting dealt to Minnesota and was one of this year’s best waiver wire adds … Since he’ll now be recovered from knee surgery in time, Mike Clevinger is my pick to win the AL Cy Young award.
ROUND 27
365. Paul DeJong
366. Brandon Lowe
367. Joey Votto
368. Sterling Shepard
369. Marcus Smart
370. James White
371. Trey Mancini
372. Dylan Bundy
373. Diontae Johnson
374. Rougned Odor
375. Brandin Cooks
376. Will Smith
377. Ryan McMahon
378. Hunter Dozier
Dylan Bundy is a former top-five pick who’s had to pitch in the AL East, in a hitter’s park, and for an Orioles team that’s also perennially among the worst defensively. He’s essentially moving to the opposite situation in a division now filled with pitcher’s parks and to an Angels team with one of the league’s best defenses. Bundy’s SwStr% has increased every season he’s been in the league, and last year’s mark (12.8%) ranked 15th among starters, sandwiched between Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw. Bundy is ready for a big breakout.
ROUND 28
379. Ricky Rubio (keeper)
380. Shin-Soo Choo
381. Gleyber Torres (keeper)
382. RJ Barrett
383. Mark Canha
384. Rui Hachimura
385. Larry Nance Jr.
386. Josh Allen
387. Andrew McCutchen
388. Bogdan Bogdanovic
389. Devonta Freeman
390. Joey Lucchesi
391. Matt Chapman (keeper)
392. Mike Foltynewicz
Gleyber Torres hit 13 homers in 18 games versus the Orioles last season. His OPS was 1.512.
He’ll improve, but RJ Barrett was the #323 ranked fantasy player in 9-cat leagues this year (#259 in 8-cat), and the Knicks figure to add pieces (likely poorly) during the offseason, so this pick was peculiar … Larry Nance Jr., meanwhile, was a top-30 fantasy player during his 10 starts this season, and there’s every reason to believe he’ll replace Kevin Love as the team’s starting PF next year.
Devonta Freeman is currently without a team and failed miserably given a golden opportunity as Atlanta’s lead back last year (when he was PFF’s second-lowest graded runner, with only Patrick “our Laird and savior” worse), but otherwise looks like a steal ... At a loaded quarterback position, I have Josh Allen ranked #7 (shout-out to Firebaugh).
393. Darius Garland
394. Fernando Tatis Jr. (keeper)
395. Josh Richardson
396. Nick Senzel
397. Tommy Edman
398. Derrick Rose
399. Will Smith
400. Thomas Bryant
401. Ramon Laureano (keeper)
402. Marcus Smart
403. J.D. Davis
404. Dustin May
405. Tyler Higbee
406. Matt Magill
Thomas Bryant’s disappointing year can be written off thanks to injuries (this is a young big who had an ADP in the fifth/sixth round of drafts, ahead of Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo). If he enters 2020/21 with a fully recovered foot, Bryant will be someone to target. I believe the proper term for grabbing Nance Jr. and Bryant with back-to-back picks this late is “Winning!”
You can listen here to Behrens try to defend himself for the pick of Darius Garland, who ranked #202 in 8-cat fantasy leagues and literally last among all players in RAPTOR WAR (shocking that Carmelo Anthony was bottom-three).
ROUND 30
407. Aaron Rodgers
408. Luke Weaver
409. Patrick Mahomes (keeper)
410. Caris LeVert (keeper)
411. Jo Adell
412. Jon Gray
413. Derrick White
414. Davis Bertans
415. Robby Anderson
416. Seth Lugo
417. A.J. Pollock
418. Alex Verdugo
419. Trent Grisham
420. Cesar Hernandez
The Panthers were a terrible fantasy landing spot for Robby Anderson, but the wideout can’t be ignored if for no other reason than escaping Adam Gase (see: Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Ryan Tannehill). Curtis Samuel actually finished top-10 in air yards last season, and Anderson was top-20 (and they both ranked bottom-five in accurate target%), which appears like a curious fit for new quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, whose aDOT (6.1 yards) was last among all passers with at least 100 dropbacks in 2019. Bridgewater’s over-reliance on checkdowns should be considered good news for Christian McCaffrey, however.
ROUND 31
421. Duncan Robinson
422. Willie Calhoun
423. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (keeper)
424. Jose Quintana
425. Brandon Woodruff (keeper)
426. C.J. Cron
427. Drew Brees
428. Matthew Boyd (keeper)
429. Evan White
430. Bam Adebayo (keeper)
431. 8th Supplemental Pick
432. Garrett Richards
433. Brandon Nimmo
434. Nate Pearson
He’s not in a great spot in Detroit, but being there helps keep Matthew Boyd’s price well below where it should be. As does his inflated ERA, which is a stat that should be completely ignored in most cases when evaluating pitching (Boyd will admittedly give up a decent number of homers). He ranked top-10 in SwStr% (14.0) and K-BB% (23.9) last season — no other pitcher appearing on both leaderboards had an ERA worse than 3.41 (and most were in the 2s).
Boyd continues to improve, will help your WHIP and is a sneaky threat to be among the league leaders in Ks. He’s a top-25 SP on my board, ahead of Luis Castillo.
Garrett Richards throws extremely hard and is not only pitching in the NL for the first time in his career but also gets Petco Park on his side, so he’s a clear SP to target later in drafts (and part of the reason I bet the Padres at 50/1 to win the World Series).
Other future WS bets I made include: White Sox (50/1), Reds (40/1) and my favorite, the Rays (23/1). My World Series prediction: Dodgers over Rays.
It’s early for NFL futures, but the Bengals Over 5.5 looks like free money, and I also love Cincy at 200/1 to win the Super Bowl. With an underrated defense, an interesting young coach, a quietly loaded skill position group also getting LT Jonah Williams back and PFF’s best-graded prospect ever taking over at quarterback (who’s also older than Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold), the Bengals shouldn’t be considered such long shots.
Next thing you know, I’ll be forced to gamble on the stock market like a real degenerate.
ROUND 32
435. Carter Kieboom
436. Nick Madrigal
437. Ryan Braun
438. David Peralta
439. Jack Doyle
440. Joe Harris
441. Yandy Diaz
442. John Wall (keeper)
443. Jared Cook
444. Nyheim, Hines
445. O.J. Howard
446. Dansby Swanson
447. Shogo Akiyama
448. Marcus Semien (keeper)
Yandy Diaz hits the ball extremely hard and continues to increase his launch angle, and while Tropicana Field isn’t ideal, he’s a sleeper as Tampa’s projected No. 3 hitter in front of Austin Meadows … I’m pretty sure I drafted O.J. Howard in the fourth round in every single one of my (far too many) leagues last year, which didn’t have the result I was looking for … With Eric Ebron gone and Philip Rivers taking over QB duties, Jack Doyle’s fantasy value is on the rise, although tight end is shaping up to be an absolutely loaded position.
ROUND 33
449. Carson Wentz
450. Kevin Huerter (keeper)
451. Noah Fant
452. DeAndre Jordan
453. T.J. Hockenson
454. Joc Pederson
455. Kenny Golladay (keeper)
456. DJ LeMahieu (keeper)
457. Wander Franco
458. Mitch Keller
459. Dallas Keuchel
460. Ross Stripling
461. Julio Urias (keeper)
462. Darius Slayton
If you watched Darius Slayton play last season, you know he’s a future star and was a steal by the Giants as a late fifth-round pick. There are potentially a lot of mouths to feed in New York with Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley also around, but it’s unlikely they all stay healthy, and I’m buying Slayton’s talent regardless. He’s a top-25 WR on my board (ahead of Odell Beckham Jr.).
This pick by Team Cousin Sal almost makes up for their Matt Magill slip four rounds ago (yikes).
ROUND 34
463. Walker Buehler (keeper)
464. Michael Brantley (keeper)
465. Eric Hosmer
466. Luke Kennard
467. Ketel Marte (keeper)
468. Hunter Harvey
469. Marquese Chriss
470. Scott Oberg
471. Goran Dragic
472. Garrett Hampson
473. Tomas Satoransky
474. Forrest Whitley
475. Jesse Winker (keeper)
476. A.J. Puk
A.J. Puk was a terrific pick here and will surely be worthy of a keeper at this spot if he proves healthy, while Marquese Chriss has turned his career around and looked like a new player since having his two-way contract converted. The former lottery pick was a top-50 fantasy player after the All-Star break and should enter 2020/21 as Golden State’s starting center … Walker Buehler as a keeper in this round is prettay, prettay good.
Hunter Harvey went as the Orioles’ possible new closer, so let’s name my favorite sleepers for saves among current non-closers for those in deep fantasy leagues:
Scott Oberg (don’t draft Wade Davis)
Matt Barnes (he’ll finish with more saves than Brandon Workman)
Aaron Bummer (Alex Colome’s 2.80 ERA came with a 4.61 xFIP)
Ty Buttrey (he’ll finish with more saves than Hansel Robles)
Daniel Hudson (Sean Doolittle hasn’t surpassed 60 innings since 2014)
Yoshihisa Hirano (don’t draft Matt Magill)
Hector Rondon (a bigger threat for saves in Arizona than Archie Bradley’s ADP suggests)
Corey Knebel (has time to be ready now, K/9 projects among highest in baseball, Brewers have used a committee before)
James Karinchak (more for keeper leaguers with Brad Hand entrenched as Cleveland’s closer, but Karinchak is the team’s future stopper after striking out 82 batters over 36.1 innings (56 K%!) across the minors and majors last year. Four bonus dynasty sleepers (non-closers): Spencer Torkelson, Noelvi Marte, Alek Thomas, and Marco Luciano)
DALTON’S BONUS TAKES
My Top-10 Movies All-Time
1) Requiem for a Dream
2) American Psycho
3) Seven
4) Pulp Fiction
5) Dumb and Dumber
6) Happiness
7) Adaptation
8) Good Will Hunting
9) Kingpin
10) Sideways
DDD’s Music Picks: TV on the Radio – “DLZ” & “Wolf Like Me” ... Fever Ray – “Keep the Streets Empty” & “If I Had A Heart” ... alt-J – “Every Other Freckle” & “Tessellate” ... Beck – “Guess I’m Doing Fine” & “The Golden Age” ... The Animals – “House Of The Rising Sun” ... Bon Iver – “Faith,” “Hey, Ma” & “Halocene”
Here’s a Classic Longread: “The Watcher”
Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5
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