Was Utah State the unluckiest team in the country in 2023?
Late during his appearance at Utah State football media day, Nate Dreiling decided to have a little fun.
The Aggies’ interim head coach had just answered several questions centered on areas that USU needed to improve upon, going back to last season and even a few years before that. Things like overall defense, limiting undisciplined penalties, making plays at crucial moments in games, etc.
“Anything else we are not good at?” Dreiling asked, tongue placed firmly against the inside of his cheek.
The answer to Dreiling’s question should have been turnovers — turnover margin, to be specific.
After all, giveaways were the main reason — stated, at least — why former head coach Blake Anderson shuffled quarterbacks as much as he did, from Logan Bonner to Cooper Legas to Levi Williams and Bishop Davenport in 2022 and from Legas to McCae Hillstead to Williams last year.
Injuries played a role, to be fair, but Anderson noted time and again that he needed a quarterback who took care of the ball. Running backs, too.
In 2022, Utah State didn’t take care of the ball and ranked No. 120 in the country in turnover margin, at minus-9.
Things improved somewhat in 2023, as Utah State ended the year ranked No. 99 in the FBS with a turnover margin of minus-5.
Better, but still not good.
Luckily for Dreiling and company, though — at least according to ESPN — last season’s turnover numbers are a bit misleading. Per Bill Connelly and his SP+ metrics, Utah State was the least lucky team in all of college football when it came to turnovers. Luck that surely has to turn in the Aggies’ favor sometime soon.
Here are the numbers:
Utah State ranked dead last out of 133 teams in turnover luck in 2023.
USU finished the year with a turnover margin of minus-5.
The team’s projected turnover margin according to ESPN metrics, however, was plus-7.
That was a swing of 12, which was the largest swing for any team in all of the FBS.
ESPN figures that Utah State either turned the ball over one time per game more than the numbers say it should have. That, or the Aggies failed to force a turnover once per game when everything says they should’ve come away with a takeaway.
Luck of the bounce, if you will. Luck that, in theory, should improve this year.
“On the more positive end, ECU and UAB likely won’t be held back as much by poor bounces, which should make bounce-back seasons at least slightly more likely,” Connelly writes.
Based off the data, ECU and UAB — teams singled out by Connelly — compared favorably to Utah State. The Pirates should’ve had a turnover margin of plus-5 last year and ended with a margin of minus-5. The Blazers should have had a turnover margin of plus-8 but ended the year an even zero.
It should be noted that turnover luck matters.
National champion Michigan and CFP participant Texas both ranked in the top 10 in turnover luck last year.
“Overall, it probably isn’t surprising that two of last year’s College Football Playoff teams (Michigan and Texas) were in the top 10 in turnover luck,” Connelly writes. “Even awesome teams need some good bounces here and there.”
Luck or no luck, Dreiling knows that Utah State has to improve overall this season, following back-to-back 6-7 campaigns.
He also knows that there are a great many things the Aggies can improve upon, be it turnover margin, penalties, clutch plays or more.
After all, leading a defensive turnaround is why Dreiling is in Logan in the first place.
“One of the main reasons I took this job was because it was very similar to my New Mexico State job,” Dreiling said. “When I got to NMSU, the year before they were ranked No. 127 in college football and there are 134 teams. So pretty close to dead last. One thing that was similar about this place was they were ranked in the upper 100s.”
Dreiling remains optimistic that Utah State can make a leap on defense; make a leap everywhere, really.
“One thing I knew for sure, if you have been that bad, you are going to soak up information and knowledge,” he said. “You are going to want to be a sponge. Because two things happen — you get tired of people telling you how bad you are and you have a huge chip on your shoulder.
“As soon as I walked into the room (here) they were all ears and they have been unbelievable. (USU) had plenty of talent last year. We just have to give the kids the tools to be successful and get their confidence rolling.”
And maybe get a little more lucky.
